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This website contains “forward-looking information” and “forward-looking statements” (collectively, “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of the applicable Canadian securities legislation. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements and reflect the current expectations, estimates and projections of NG Energy and are based on the information currently available to the Company. Any statement that involves discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions, future events or performance (often but not always using phrases such as “expects”, or “does not expect”, “is expected”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, “plans”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “forecasts”, “estimates”, “believes” or “intends” or variations of such words and phrases or stating that certain actions, events or results “may” or “could”, “would”, “might” or “will” be taken to occur or be achieved) are not statements of historical fact and may be forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements are described under the caption “Risk Factors” in the Company's most recent Management Discussion and Analysis and its Annual Information Form dated June 30, 2023, which are available for view on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca. These risks include but are not limited to, the risks associated with the oil and gas industry, such as exploration, production and general operational risks, volatility of pricing for oil and gas, changing investor sentiment about the oil and gas industry, competition in the markets where the Company operates, any delays in production, marketing and transportation of gas, drilling costs and availability of equipment, regulatory approval risks and environmental risks. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made based on the information currently available to the Company, and the Company disclaims, other than as required by law, any obligation to update any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, results, future events, circumstances, or if management's estimates or opinions should change, or otherwise. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, the reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
The abbreviations set forth below have the following meanings:
| Oil and Natural Gas Liquids | Gas | ||
| Mbbl | thousand barrels | MMcf/d | million cubic feet per day |
| NGL | natural gas liquid | Bcf | billion cubic feet |
| MMBtu | one million British thermal units | ||
| Other | |||
| ft | feet | ||
| mm | million | ||
| WI | working interest | ||
| NPV10% | net present value using a 10% forward discount rate | ||
| 3P reserves | Proved + Probable + Possible reserves | ||
| 2P reserves | Proved + Probable reserves | ||
| 1P reserves | Proved reserves | ||
Sproule International Limited (“Sproule”), an independent qualified reserves and resources evaluator, has conducted the reserves and resource evaluation for the Maria Conchita and Sinú-9 fields in accordance with the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (the “COGE Handbook”). It adheres in all material aspects to the principles and definitions established by the Calgary Chapter of the Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers regarding annual reserve and resource reports that are being released in the public domain. The COGE Handbook is incorporated by reference in National Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities.
Sinú-9
The report entitled “Evaluation of the P&NG Reserves and Resources of NG Energy International in the Sinú-9 Block, Colombia” (the “Sinú-9 Report”) was prepared by Sproule with an effective date of December 31, 2023 and a preparation date of December 21, 2023. The Company’s working interest in the Sinú-9 field is 72%, subject to payment of ANH sliding scale royalties. Reserves and resources attributed to the Hechizo, Brujo, Magico, Mago, Hechicero, Encanto, Milagroso, Porquero, Embrujo, Ensalmo and Sortilegio zones have been included in the Sinú-9 Report. Contingent resources for Sinú-9 are petroleum and gas classified as “development pending” and are attributed a chance of development of 80%. The prospective resources assigned to the Brujo-Porquero, Hechicero-Porquero and Milagroso fields are subclassified as “prospects” and are attributed a chance of discovery of 58-60% and a chance of development of 66%. The prospective resources assigned to the Embrujo, Ensalmo and Sortilegio fields are subclassified as “lead” and are attributed a chance of discovery of 25-30% and a chance of development of 66%.
Total gas is planned to be produced through new and existing wellbores and a pipeline to a processing facility using established recovery technology.
The development plan for the reserves area located within Sinú-9 includes the completion of the Brujo-1X, as well as drilling a total of 12 wells; 5 in the Hechicero field, 4 in the Magico field and 3 in the Brujo field. Production will be processed through a dehydration and compression facility as well as a gas pipeline from Sinú-9 to Jobo station.
The development plan for the contingent resources area located within Sinú-9 includes the drilling of 5 locations for the low estimate scenario, 12 locations for the best estimate scenario and 18 locations for the high estimate scenario. Production will be processed through new facilities to be built by the Company. Due to the number of reservoirs identified in the area, the number of wells may change by category according to the uncertainty identified in the reservoir areas, since they are not completely concentric with respect to each other. The estimated date of first commercial production is June 2030 and the total estimated cost (Company share) to achieve commercial production, assuming all wells planned are drilled successfully, is $44 million in the low estimate scenario, $95 million in the best estimate scenario and $134 million in the high estimate scenario.
The development plan for the prospective resources area located within Sinú-9 includes the drilling of 13 locations; 4 in Milagroso, 2 in Embrujo, 3 in Ensalmo, 2 in Sortilegio and 2 in the Porquero formation. Production will be processed through new facilities to be built by the Company. Due to the number of reservoirs identified in the area, the number of wells may change by category according to the uncertainty identified in the reservoir areas, since they are not completely concentric with respect to each other. The estimated date of first commercial production is July 2024 and the total estimated cost (Company share) to achieve commercial production, assuming all wells planned are drilled successfully, is $85 million in the best estimate scenario.
The gas resources were estimated based on the technically recoverable volume, budgeted operating and capital costs and the terms of the fiscal regime. Forecasts of net revenue were prepared by predicting the annual production from the resources and product prices. Gas reserves and resources have only been assigned based on the gas contracts and the gas contract precedents expected to be in place at production start-up. There is no certainty it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the contingent resources and there is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.
In sum, the development forecast presented in the Sinú-9 Report was based on a complete evaluation of the Company’s lands for the zones identified by the Company to be prospective for economic development at the time of the Sinú-9 Report. The development forecast represents full development of the lands for which reserves and resources could be assigned. Additional potential could exist within zones which were not identified by the Company, within the scope of the Sinú-9 Report.
Maria Conchita
The report entitled “Evaluation of the P&NG Reserves and Resources of NG Energy International in the Maria Conchita Block, Colombia” (the “Maria Conchita Report”) was prepared by Sproule with an effective date of December 31, 2023 and a preparation date of December 20, 2023. The Company holds an 80% working interest in Maria Conchita. Reserves and resources attributed to the H1, H1A, H1A1, H1B, H4, H4B, H4, H4 and LM2 zones have been included in the Maria Conchita Report. Contingent resources for Maria Conchita are petroleum and gas classified as “development pending” and are attributed a chance of development of 0.73. The prospective resources for Maria Conchita are subclassified as “prospect” and are attributed a chance of discovery of 0.41 and chance of development of 0.73.
Total gas is planned to be produced through new and existing wellbores and a pipeline to a processing facility using established recovery technology.
The development plan for the reserves area located within Maria Conchita includes the production maintenance of Aruchara-1 and Aruchara-3, as well as the drilling of a total of 5 wells; 2 in the Aruchara field and 3 in the Tinka field on 425 acres spacing. Production will be processed through an existing facility.
The development plan for the contingent resources area located within Maria Conchita includes the drilling of a total of 10 wells; 9 in the Aruchara field and 1 in the Tinka field on 425 acres spacing. Additionally, expansion of the existing facility is included to a total capacity of 60 MMcf/d for the best estimate scenario. Due to the number of reservoirs identified in the area, the number of wells may change by category according to the uncertainty identified in reservoir areas, since they are not completely centric with respect to each other. The estimated date of first commercial production is March 2026 and the total estimated cost (Company share) to achieve commercial production, assuming all wells planned are drilled successfully, is $32 million in the low estimate scenario, $74 million in the best estimate scenario and $131 million in the high estimate scenario.
The development plan for the prospective resources area located within Maria Conchita include the drilling of 10 wells on 425 acres spacing across the intervals of interest H4, H4B and H4. The estimated date of first commercial production is July 2026 and the total estimated cost (Company share) to achieve commercial production, assuming all wells planned are drilled successfully, is $67 million in the best estimate scenario.
The gas and condensate reserves and resources were estimated based on the technically recoverable volume, operating and capital costs and the terms of the fiscal regime. Forecasts of net revenue were prepared by predicting the annual production from the reserves, resources and product prices. Gas reserves and resources have only been assigned based on the gas contracts and the gas contract precedents in effect as of date of the Maria Conchita Report. There is no certainty it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the contingent resources and there is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.
In sum, the development forecast presented in the Maria Conchita Report was based on a complete evaluation of the Company’s lands for the zones identified by the Company to be prospective for economic development at the time of the Maria Conchita Report. The development forecast represents full development of the lands for which reserves and resources could be assigned. Additional potential could exist within zones which were not identified by the Company, within the scope of the Maria Conchita Report.
The determination of oil and gas reserves involves the preparation of estimates that have an inherent degree of associated uncertainty. Categories of proved, probable and possible reserves have been established to reflect the level of these uncertainties and to provide an indication of the probability of recovery. The estimation and classification of reserves requires the application of professional judgement combined with geological and engineering knowledge to assess whether or not specific reserves classification criteria have been satisfied. Knowledge of concepts including uncertainty and risk, probability and statistics, and deterministic and probabilistic estimation methods is required to properly use and apply reserves definitions.
The recovery and reserve estimates of NGLs and gas reserves provided herein are estimates only. Actual reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein. The estimated future net revenue from the production of the disclosed gas reserves does not represent the fair market value of these reserves.
Reserves are estimated remaining quantities of commercially recoverable oil, gas and related substances anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, as of a given date, based on the analysis of drilling, geological, geophysical and engineering data; the use of established technology; and specified economic conditions, which are generally accepted as being reasonable. Reserves are further classified according to the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be subclassified based on development and production status.
“Proved reserves” are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated Proved reserves.
“Probable reserves” are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than Proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated Proved + Probable reserves.
“Possible reserves” are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than Probable reserves. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the sum of the estimated Proved + Probable + Possible reserves. There is a 10% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of Proved + Probable + Possible reserves.
The qualitative certainty levels referred to in the definitions above are applicable to “individual reserves entities” (which refers to the lowest level at which reserves calculations are performed) and to “reported reserves” (which refers to the highest-level sum of individual entity estimates for which reserves estimates are presented). Reported reserves should target the following levels of certainty under a specific set of economic conditions:
A qualitative measure of the certainty levels pertaining to estimates prepared for the various reserves categories is desirable to provide a clearer understanding of the associated risks and uncertainties. However, the majority of reserves estimates will be prepared using deterministic methods that do not provide a mathematically derived quantitative measure of probability. In principle, there should be no difference between estimates prepared using probabilistic or deterministic methods.
Each of the reserve categories (Proved and Probable) may be divided into developed and undeveloped categories as follows:
“Developed Producing reserves” are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of the estimate. These reserves may be currently producing or, if shut-in, they must have previously been on production, and the date of resumption of production must be known with reasonable certainty.
“Developed Non-Producing reserves” are those reserves that either have not been on production, or have previously been on production, but are shut-in, and the date of resumption of production is unknown.
“Undeveloped reserves” are those reserves expected to be recovered from known accumulations where a significant expenditure (e.g., when compared to the cost of drilling a well) is required to render them capable of production. They must fully meet the requirements of the reserves classification (Proved, Probable and Possible) to which they are assigned and expected to be developed within a limited time.
In multi-well pools it may be appropriate to allocate total pool reserves between the developed and undeveloped subclasses or to subdivide the developed reserves for the pool between developed producing and developed nonproducing. This allocation should be based on the estimator’s assessment as to the reserves that will be recovered from specific wells, facilities and completion intervals in the pool and their respective development and production status.
“Contingent resources” are those quantities of oil or gas estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies are conditions that must be satisfied for a portion of contingent resources to be classified as reserves that are: (a) specific to the project being evaluated; and (b) expected to be resolved within a reasonable timeframe.
The contingencies that apply to the contingent resources in Sinú-9 are as follows:
(1) Timing of Production and Development: The Company has not prepared a detailed development and the overall timing of production is unknown. It is anticipated that as the development plan is refined the Company would be able to make a final investment decision, at which point this contingency would be lifted;
(2) Infrastructure and Market Considerations: Current infrastructure in the contingent resources area does not allow access to pipelines or existing facilities, although there are two third party facilities nearby and the Company has begun discussions with the relevant third parties. Once this has been completed or is contracted to be completed in the near term, this contingency would be lifted;
(3) Corporate Commitment: The Company is committed to move forward with the commercial development of the assets assigned as contingent resources, but currently there is no final investment decision. Therefore, the risk factor is low; and
(4) Regulatory Approval: The Company has not submitted a regulatory application for the development of the total contingent area, but its virtually certain that they will obtain regulatory approval. Therefore, the risk is low. Once the application has been submitted this contingency would be lifted.
The contingencies that apply to the contingent resources in Maria Conchita are as follows:
(1) Regulatory Approval: The Company has not submitted a regulatory application for the development of the contingent resource area. The absence of the submission of an application to expand the development has resulted in the contingency. Once the application has been submitted this contingency would be lifted;
(2) Timing of Production and Development: The development plan (which has not been submitted in accordance with the regulations) includes a high concentration of wells to be drilled per year. A small risk factor has been applied to account for the risk of development proceeding at a slower pace. Once the Company demonstrates this level of development is sustainable this contingency would be lifted; and
(3) Infrastructure and Market Considerations: Current infrastructure in the contingent resources area does not allow access to pipelines or existing facilities. This has restricted the volumes of produced hydrocarbon from the contingent resources area that can access viable markets. Therefore, pipelines need to be built to allow for the product to reach markets. Once this has been completed or is contracted to be completed in the near term, this contingency would be lifted.
Contingent resources are further categorised according to the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub-classified based on a project maturity and characterised by their economic status. There are three classifications of contingent resources: low estimate, best estimate and high estimate. Best estimate is a classification of estimated resources described in the COGE Handbook as the best estimate of the quantity that will be actually recovered; it is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 50% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.
The project maturity subclasses include development pending, development on hold, development unclarified and development not viable. All of the contingent resources disclosed on this website are classified as development pending. Development pending is defined as a contingent resource where resolution of the final conditions of development is being actively pursued. Chance of development is the likelihood that an accumulation will be commercially developed.
Conversion of the development pending contingent resources to reserves is dependent upon a final investment decision for the gas development of Maria Conchita and Sinú-9.
For Sinú-9 the major positive factors relevant to the estimate of the development pending contingent resources are production has already been tested for three fields (Brujo, Magico and Hechizo), analogs and test results show high potential for economically recoverable volumes, reclassification of Brujo, Magico and Hechizo will assist to get access to future infrastructure for gas transportation and treatment and the proximity to existing infrastructure for gas gathering and compression. The major negative factors are the long-term sustainability of the gas price is unknown and there is insufficient infrastructure capacity to handle large volumes of gas.
For Maria Conchita the major positive factors relevant to the estimate of the development pending contingent resources are production tests performed in wells drilled in the area are showing gas presence and wells logged favourable reservoir quality formations. The major negative factors are the non-concentricity between target formations, which could cause an increase in the number of wells, long-term water production since some formations produced water and caused water loading up problems during well testing and insufficient infrastructure capacity to handle large volumes of gas.
There is no certainty that any portion of the resources will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.
This website discloses estimates of the Company's prospective resources. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of such prospective resources. Estimates of prospective resources involve additional risks over estimates of reserves. The accuracy of any resources estimate is a function of the quality and quantity of available data and of engineering interpretation and judgment. While resources presented herein are considered reasonable, the estimates should be accepted with the understanding that reservoir performance subsequent to the date of the estimate may justify revision, either upward or downward.
“Prospective Resources” are defined in the COGE Handbook as those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects. Prospective resources have both an associated chance of discovery and a chance of development. The chance that an exploration project will result in the discovery of petroleum is referred to as the chance of discovery. The chance that an accumulation will be commercially developed is referred to as the chance of development
Prospective Resources are further subdivided in accordance with the level of certainty associated with recoverable estimates assuming their discovery:
Prospective resources are not, and should not be confused with, reserves or contingent resources. “Prospective Resources” are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects. Prospective Resources have both an associated chance of discovery and a chance of development.
There is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the prospective resources or that the Company will produce any portion of the volumes currently classified as prospective resources. The estimates of prospective resources involve implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the resources described exists in the quantities predicted or estimated, as at a given date, and that the resources can be profitably produced in the future. Actual prospective resources (and any volumes that may be reclassified as reserves) and future production therefrom may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein.
The contingencies that apply to the prospective resources in Sinú-9 are as follows:
(1) Evaluation Drilling: There is a requirement for more evaluation drilling to confirm the geological continuity of the reservoir and reduce the distance from proven productivity. It is anticipated that as the Company continues to pursue primary development of the reservoir, commercial productivity will be established closer to and within the primary production prospective resources areas, at which time this contingency would be removed;
(2) Regulatory Approval: The Company has not submitted a regulatory application for the development of the prospective resources area. The absence of the submission of an application to expand the development has resulted in the contingency. Once the application has been submitted this contingency would be lifted;
(3) Infrastructure and Market Considerations: Current infrastructure in the prospective resources area does not allow access to pipelines or existing facilities. This has restricted the volumes of produced hydrocarbon from the prospective resources area that can access viable markets. Therefore, pipelines and facilities need to be built to allow for the product to reach markets. Once this has been completed or is contracted to be completed in the near term, this contingency would be lifted;
(4) Timing of Production and Development: The Company has not prepared a detailed development and the overall timing of production is unknown. It is anticipated that as the development plan is refined the Company would be able to make a final investment decision, at which point this contingency would be lifted; and
(5) Corporate Commitment: There has been no final investment decision and endorsement from the Company to move forward with commercial development of the assets assigned as prospective resources. It is likely that a final investment decision to approve this project will not occur for several years. Additionally, a detailed development plan has not been created and further work needs to be completed to confirm how the resources will be developed. It is anticipated that as the development plan is refined the Company would be able to make a final investment decision, at which point this contingency would be lifted.
The contingencies that apply to the prospective resources in Maria Conchita are as follows:
(1) Regulatory Approval: The Company has not submitted a regulatory application for the development of the prospective resources area. The absence of the submission of an application to expand the development has resulted in the contingency. Once the application has been submitted this contingency would be lifted;
(2) Timing of Production and Development: The development plan (which has not been submitted in accordance with the regulations) includes a high concentration of wells to be drilled per year. A small risk factor has been applied to account for the risk of development proceeding at a slower pace. Once the Company demonstrates this level of development is sustainable this contingency would be lifted; and
(3) Infrastructure and Market Considerations: Current infrastructure in the Prospective Resources Area does not allow access to pipelines or existing facilities. This has restricted the volumes of produced hydrocarbon from the Prospective Resources Area that can access viable markets. Therefore, pipelines and facilities need to be built to allow for the product to reach markets. Once this has been completed or is contracted to be completed in the near term, this contingency would be lifted.
For Sinú-9 the major positive factors relevant to the estimate of the prospective resources are the proximity of the Milagroso prospect to the existing gas gathering and compression infrastructure could speed gas access to the market if discovered and exploration wells have been successfully drilled in Sinú-9, so the prospects uncertainty is decreasing. The major negative factors are the long-term sustainability of the gas price is unknown, prospects and leads are quite far away in some instances from the gathering and compression facilities, so additional capital expenditures should be required to construct new facilities and due to the high uncertainty associated with Cabala and Conjuro, these couldn’t be classified as prospective resources, further studies should be performed to classify them as that.
For Maria Conchita the major positive factors relevant to the estimate of the prospective resources are as large amplitudes are seen in seismic for prospective resources, the areas could be larger than expected. The major negative factors are the uncertainty in lateral variation of thickness and reservoir quality and insufficient infrastructure capacity to handle large volumes of gas.
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NG Energy International Corp.
Suite 800, 365 Bay Street
Toronto, ON
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